When Chinese President Xi Jinping flew into Pyongyang on June 20 for a two-day trip, the message was meant not for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, but US President Donald Trump. The visit, nevertheless, was a major political boost for Kim, struggling under crippling sanctions and floundering in his efforts to normalise ties with the US and South Korea.
Xi timed his visit to send a message to Trump. Both leaders are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit hosted by Japan on June 28 and 29. China-US bilateral relations are going through an extremely tumultuous period. The trade war between the two countries have intensified over the past couple of weeks, with Trump targeting exports from China with increased tariffs.
The US has imposed a 25 per cent tariff on goods worth $200 billion imported from China, and Trump has warned that he would extend it to goods worth another $300 billion more if China was not ready to re-negotiate the terms of trade with the US. The blacklisting of the Chinese telecommunication giant Huawei, cutting it off from many critical partners in the US, has added to the crisis. There have also been reports about Apple considering moving nearly 30 per cent of its production out of China. The situation can only worsen as the US moves into the presidential election mode less than a year from now. Industry watchers predict that a major decoupling is afoot between the US and China, driving apart the two largest economies of the world.
With no rapprochement with Trump in sight, Xi is exploring avenues of leverage. And, North Korea happens to be an easy target. Trump has invested a lot in his efforts to woo Kim, and to be remembered as the president who brought peace between the United States and North Korea. The two summits he had with Kim, and the audacious decision to stop war games in the Korean Peninsula without getting anything concrete in return should be seen in this context. Xi seems to have taken note of this soft spot, and decided to pay a quick visit to Pyongyang.
Xi's visit, ostensibly, was to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea. Yet, Xi has not paid a visit to North Korea, although Kim had been to China four times in the last 15 months. The last Chinese president to visit North Korea was Hu Jintao in 2005. Kim had made unprecedented arrangements to welcome Xi, who was accompanied by his wife, Peng Liyuan, and key aides including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, senior diplomat Yang Jiechi and key economic adviser He Lifeng.
The Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of the North Korean ruling party, devoted its front page to the visit and carried a detailed profile of the Chinese president. The daily also carried an op-ed written by Xi, something unheard of in North Korea. At the airport, Xi was received by Kim and his wife, Ri Sol Ju. Nearly 10,000 cheering people and a 21-gun salute greeted the visiting dignitaries. In an unprecedented move, Kim took Xi in an open-top vehicle from the city centre to the Kumsusan Palace mausoleum, where the preserved bodies of his father and grandfather lie. Both leaders had extensive discussions on the situation in the Korean Peninsula and they acknowledged that the deepening China-North Korea relations would be in the “mutual interest of the two countries in the face of serious and complicated changes in the environment and would be favourable for the region’s peace, stability and development.”
According to the Chinese state media, Xi broached the nuclear issue with Kim and agreed that the US should meet “North Korea halfway to explore resolution plans that accommodate each other’s reasonable concerns.” Most importantly for Xi, he seems to have secured from Kim an assurance to restart the stalled nuclear negotiations with the US. It is expected to be a key point of leverage for China during its talks with the US at the G20 summit, by demonstrating to Trump that it still held the aces while dealing with North Korea.
In return, Xi seems to have promised Kim a way out of tough sanctions by discreetly providing essential items such as food and oil. For instance, a few days ago, China and Russia had joined hands to defeat an American attempt to curtail oil supply to the North, by pointing out that it had already exhausted the UN-mandated quotas. In the days to come, China is likely to further ease controls of exports and also allow more stuff from the North to find its way to Chinese markets.
Xi's endorsement has given Kim a big public relations boost and a stronger bargaining position in his talks with Washington. In particular, Xi has strongly supported North Korea's denuclearisation policy in an apparent signal to Trump that the US will have to make further concessions to ensure that the opening for peace was not wasted. In Xi's presence, Kim had asked Trump to adopt a new method for the denuclearisation talks, while the Chinese president assured Kim that he “positively evaluated” the North's initiatives.
Xi was also keen to draw Kim to his side as there was speculation that, under the new regime, North Korea was gradually drifting away from China. After he assumed power, Kim had purged a majority of the pro-Chinese members among North Korea's ruling elite. The two summits with the US further added to this perception, although Kim had kept Xi in the loop during the process. The changed circumstances and the latest summit are likely to further strengthen China-North Korea ties and make the bargaining position of both Xi and Kim stronger vis-a-vis the US.
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